Market Pulse59Neutral

Sandisk CorporationOpportunity Rank #205(SNDK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$1,339.96

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,339.96
Price
$518.32
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 61%MOS: $414.66

Fundamental Score

36/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

100/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is estimated at $518.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,339.96, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.99% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is estimated at $518.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,339.96, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.99% long-term growth rate and a 12.16% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$518.32
▼ -61.32% downside
20% margin of safety: $414.66
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.99%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.01%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

36/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
61.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
11
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.0% vs WACC 7.0% (1.7x)
86
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (43rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 216 (200 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
183 news sentiment+13.2
7 earnings beat+0.7
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

100/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08310 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA+72.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+154.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+612.8%
Price vs 21 EMA100 · +39.9%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +72.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA100 · +23.6%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +154.5%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +612.8%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Sandisk Corporation is currently overvalued by approximately 61%, with weak fundamentals despite a return on invested capital (ROIC) that exceeds its cost of capital by 5 percentage points. The company's narrative remains supportive but does not offset the bearish fundamental outlook and high valuation risk.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the stock price remains significantly above fair value, exposing investors to potential downside if fundamentals do not improve or valuation contracts.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts indicating improvement or deterioration
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 59.95%5 Year CAGR: 25.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222022
$4,818$288-$143-$494$1,561$1,561

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Sandisk Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Sandisk CorporationTechnology

SanDisk Corp. engages in the development, manufacture, and provision of storage devices and solutions on NAND flash technology. Its products include solid state drives. embedded products, removable cards, universal series bus, and wafers and components. The company was founded on June 1, 1988 and is headquartered in Milipitas, CA.