Market Pulse59Neutral

Snowflake Inc.Opportunity Rank #275(SNOW) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$153.72

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$153.72
Price
$98.49
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 36%MOS: $78.79

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

77/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

25/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) is estimated at $98.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $153.72, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and an 8.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) is estimated at $98.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $153.72, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and an 8.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$98.49
▼ -35.93% downside
20% margin of safety: $78.79
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-49.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
35.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.5% trailing FCF yield
12
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -49.9% vs WACC 11.0% (-4.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
321.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

77/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (33rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 226 (197 News · 29 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
61 news sentiment+1.6
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
121 legal risk+0.5
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Layoffs+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

25/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-51.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-45.0%
Price vs 21 EMA74 · +4.2%
Price vs 50 EMA38 · -2.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA10 · -6.3%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.3%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -51.3%
Distance from 52W High10 · -45.0%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Snowflake Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 32%, with weak fundamentals indicated by a low score of 35 and returns trailing its cost of capital despite an improving narrative score of 77. The company's free cash flow growth is strong, but its return on invested capital significantly underperforms its weighted average cost of capital, suggesting operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which could continue to erode shareholder value if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 55.69%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 321.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,324$1,006$917$595$139-$5-$154-$140

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Snowflake Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Snowflake Inc.Technology

Snowflake Inc. provides a cloud-based data platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform offers Data Cloud, which enables customers to consolidate data into a single source of truth to drive meaningful business insights, build data-driven applications, and share data. Its platform is used by various organizations of sizes in a range of industries. The company was formerly known as Snowflake Computing, Inc. and changed its name to Snowflake Inc. in April 2019. Snowflake Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Bozeman, Montana.