Market Pulse53Neutral

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Opportunity Rank #310(SOFI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$16.65

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$16.65
Price
$2.97
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 82%MOS: $2.38

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

19/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) is estimated at $2.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $16.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -75.98% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 16.38%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) is estimated at $2.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $16.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -75.98% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 16.38%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$2.97
▼ -82.16% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: -75.98%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
82.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-9.4% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.5% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
20
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-77.0% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (21st pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 159 (152 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
136 news sentiment+1.2
15 regulatory scrutiny-0.5
Upgrade headlines+0.2
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

19/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-44.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-48.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.5%
Price vs 21 EMA19 · -5.7%
Price vs 50 EMA24 · -5.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA51 · +0.1%
3M RS vs SPY8 · -14.5%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -44.2%
Distance from 52W High2 · -48.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
SoFi Technologies, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 92% above estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental profile and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a moderately supportive narrative score, the company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of SoFi's return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -75.98%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -73.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
-$2,000-$3,500-$956-$7,106-$7,152-$1,298-$455-$17$1,037$88

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates SoFi Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Financial Services

SoFi Technologies, Inc. specializes in delivering a wide array of online financial solutions. The company's business is structured across three main divisions: Lending, Technology Platform, and Financial Services. Through its diverse offerings, SoFi empowers its members to manage their money comprehensively, facilitating borrowing, saving, spending, investing, and asset protection. Its lending portfolio includes student loans, personal loans for various needs like debt consolidation or home improvements, and home mortgages. Furthermore, SoFi provides services for cash management and investment, complemented by its robust technology services. This technology segment features Galileo, a platform serving both financial and non-financial institutions; Apex, a technology-driven platform for investment custody and clearing brokerage; and Technisys, a cutting-edge, cloud-native core banking platform designed for multiple products. Established in 2011, SoFi Technologies, Inc. is based in San Francisco, California.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq