Market Pulse59Neutral

Seagate Technology Holdings plcOpportunity Rank #196(STX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$766.44

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$766.44
Price
$106.27
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 86%MOS: $85.02

Fundamental Score

49/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

100/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is estimated at $106.27 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $766.44, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.04% long-term growth rate and a 12.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is estimated at $106.27 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $766.44, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.04% long-term growth rate and a 12.30% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$106.27
▼ -86.13% downside
20% margin of safety: $85.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.04%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
78.83%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

49/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
86.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 78.8% vs WACC 11.0% (7.2x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
6.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
57
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (71st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 154 (135 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
105 news sentiment+6.6
6 earnings beat+0.8
7 upgrade headlines+0.4
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
Analyst upgrades+0.1
18 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

100/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+75.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+174.9%
Price vs 50 EMA+45.3%
Price vs 21 EMA99 · +22.0%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +45.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA100 · +19.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +75.5%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +174.9%
Distance from 52W High99 · -0.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Seagate Technology Holdings plc shows a strong ROIC significantly above its cost of capital and an improving narrative score, indicating operational strength despite a bearish valuation score. However, the current price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting limited upside potential at present.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price remains significantly overvalued relative to its fair value, which could limit returns or lead to downside risk.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Narrative score shows meaningful directional shifts
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.04%5 Year CAGR: 8.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,121$1,348$1,172$1,258$2,038$2,124$2,299$2,363$2,479$2,350$2,267$3,394$3,117$3,833$3,898$2,107$2,571$1,456$3,468$1,849$2,465

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Seagate Technology Holdings plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Seagate Technology Holdings plcTechnology

Seagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. The company also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives; notebook drives, DVR HDDs, and gaming SSDs. In addition, it provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform. The company sells its products primarily to OEMs, distributors, and retailers. Seagate Technology Holdings plc was founded in 1978 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.