Market Pulse59Neutral

T1 Energy IncOpportunity Rank #250(TE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$5.15

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$5.15
Price
$4.39
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 15%MOS: $3.51

Fundamental Score

49/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

52/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of T1 Energy Inc (TE) is estimated at $4.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.15, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -9.17% long-term growth rate and a 10.96% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of T1 Energy Inc (TE) is estimated at $4.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $5.15, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -9.17% long-term growth rate and a 10.96% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4.39
▼ -14.76% downside
20% margin of safety: $3.51
Years: 10Growth Rate: -9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-9.56%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

49/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
14.8% premium to price
25
FCF Yield
19.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -9.6% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.9x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
54
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
183.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (24th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 66%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 19 (18 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
15 news sentiment+0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Legal risk+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

52/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-32.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+41.8%
Price vs 21 EMA+16.7%
Price vs 21 EMA98 · +16.7%
Price vs 50 EMA85 · +9.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA10 · -6.4%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -32.3%
6M RS vs SPY99 · +41.8%
Distance from 52W High30 · -35.1%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
T1 Energy Inc currently trades near fair value with a healthy free cash flow yield of 19.5%, but returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, suggesting cautious patience. The company's fundamentals show a stable narrative trend despite a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating potential for improvement.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may impair value creation if not reversed.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -9.17%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 195.32%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
$174$174-$52$100$91-$49-$70$$1,349$1,379$1,191$1,262$1,208$947$631$356$445$455$335$139$477

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates T1 Energy Inc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

T1 Energy IncIndustrials

T1 Energy Inc engages in the production and sale of battery cells for stationary energy storage, electric mobility, and marine applications in Europe and internationally. The company designs and manufactures lithium-ion based battery cell facilities. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Luxembourg.