Market Pulse59Neutral

Target CorporationOpportunity Rank #40(TGT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$125.91

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$125.91
Price
$324.16
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 157%MOS: $259.33

Fundamental Score

50/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

68/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Target Corporation (TGT) is estimated at $324.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $125.91, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.84% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Target Corporation (TGT) is estimated at $324.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $125.91, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.84% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$324.16
▲ 157.46% upside
20% margin of safety: $259.33
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.84%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.68%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

50/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
157.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
17
Net Debt / FCF
1.1x net debt to FCF
58
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (40th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 231 (200 News · 31 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
144 news sentiment+6.4
18 upgrade headlines+1.7
25 regulatory scrutiny+1.2
3 earnings beat+0.8
8 downgrade headlines-0.1
Margin pressure-0.1

Trend Details

68/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+27.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-5.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+3.6%
Price vs 21 EMA44 · -1.0%
Price vs 50 EMA62 · +2.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA76 · +3.6%
3M RS vs SPY57 · +1.6%
6M RS vs SPY95 · +27.4%
Distance from 52W High90 · -5.2%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Target Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 158% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 17.9%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the stable and supportive narrative score of 80 suggests potential for price appreciation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are not currently covering the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.84%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.69%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$10,194$10,258$13,427$9,546$12,169$13,174$10,144$9,489$9,456$6,983$7,282$6,225$9,973$8,602$9,802$7,400$7,610$7,977$8,494$8,790

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Target Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Target CorporationConsumer Defensive

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. The company offers food assortments, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items; apparel, accessories, home décor products, electronics, toys, seasonal offerings, food, and other merchandise; and beauty and household essentials. It also provides in-store amenities, such as Target Café, Target Optical, Starbucks, and other food service offerings. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. As of March 09, 2022, the company operated approximately 2,000 stores. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.