Market Pulse44Neutral

Target CorporationOpportunity Rank #35(TGT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$129.77

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$129.77
Price
$347.14
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 168%MOS: $277.71

Fundamental Score

48/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

67/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Target Corporation (TGT) is estimated at $347.14 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.77, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.92% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.71%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Target Corporation (TGT) is estimated at $347.14 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.77, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.92% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.71%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$347.14
▲ 167.51% upside
20% margin of safety: $277.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.92%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.43%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

48/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
167.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
18.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.4% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
16
Net Debt / FCF
1.1x net debt to FCF
57
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.0% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (48th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 12m ago
Sources: 217 (200 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
165 news sentiment+3.1
7 upgrade headlines+0.9
19 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
3 downgrade headlines+0.1
2 margin pressure+0.0
Guidance raise+0.0

Trend Details

67/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-4.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+20.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+2.1%
Price vs 21 EMA57 · +1.1%
Price vs 50 EMA66 · +3.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA67 · +2.1%
3M RS vs SPY49 · -0.2%
6M RS vs SPY91 · +20.7%
Distance from 52W High92 · -4.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Target Corporation is undervalued with an estimated fair value 139% above its current price, supported by a strong free cash flow yield of 16.9% and a stable narrative score of 80. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the valuation discount and positive narrative suggest potential upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the company's cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.92%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.98%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$10,880$10,258$13,427$9,546$12,169$13,174$10,144$9,489$9,456$6,983$7,282$6,225$9,973$8,602$9,802$7,400$7,610$7,977$8,494$8,790

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Target Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Target CorporationConsumer Defensive

Target Corporation operates as a prominent general merchandise retailer throughout the United States. Its extensive product range includes a wide array of food items like perishables, dry groceries, dairy, and frozen goods, alongside apparel, accessories, home décor, electronics, toys, seasonal offerings, and essential beauty and household products. Beyond merchandise, Target stores often feature convenient in-store amenities such as Target Café, Target Optical, Starbucks outlets, and various other food service options. The company facilitates sales through its physical retail locations and its digital platform, Target.com. As of March 9, 2022, Target maintained a network of approximately 2,000 stores. Founded in 1902, the corporation's headquarters are situated in Minneapolis, Minnesota.