Market Pulse44Neutral

TMC the metals company Inc.Opportunity Rank #301(TMC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$4.95

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$4.95
Price
-$0.20
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 104%MOS: -$0.16

Fundamental Score

31/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

18/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) is estimated at $-0.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -40.46% long-term growth rate and an 11.47% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) is estimated at $-0.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -40.46% long-term growth rate and an 11.47% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$0.20
▼ -104.04% downside
20% margin of safety: -$0.16
Years: 10Growth Rate: -40.46%
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Fundamental Details

31/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
104.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-35.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (32nd pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 80%Updated: 28m ago
Sources: 35 (31 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
27 news sentiment+0.5
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

18/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-53.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-38.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.4%
Price vs 21 EMA13 · -7.4%
Price vs 50 EMA13 · -8.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA36 · -1.7%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.4%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -38.0%
Distance from 52W High0 · -53.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
TMC the metals company Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 103.5% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company’s returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and limited upside potential.
Key Risk
The primary risk is continued deterioration in fundamentals and failure to generate positive returns above the cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -40.47%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 86.46%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$34-$43-$43-$59-$65-$56-$26$0

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TMC the metals company Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TMC the metals company Inc.Basic Materials

TMC the metals company Inc., established in Vancouver, Canada, in 2019 (originally incorporated as Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation), is a firm dedicated to deep-sea mineral exploration. Its core operations involve discovering, processing, and refining polymetallic nodules found on the seabed of the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific Ocean, situated southwest of San Diego, California. The company, through its subsidiaries, holds exploration licenses for three distinct polymetallic nodule areas within this CCZ. The primary metals it aims to extract include nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. These valuable resources are essential for various applications, such as electric vehicle components, renewable energy storage systems, EV wiring, clean energy transmission, and the production of manganese alloys crucial for steel manufacturing, among other industrial uses.