Market Pulse51Neutral

Tencent Music Entertainment Group(TME) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$9.33

Last updated: Jul 28, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$9.33
Price
$33.15
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 255%MOS: $26.52

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

48/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

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The intrinsic value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is estimated at $33.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.33, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.09%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is estimated at $33.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.33, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.09%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$33.15
255.31% upside
20% margin of safety: $26.52
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.78%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.57%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
255.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.6% vs WACC 7.0% (0.7x)
33
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
18.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

48/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (85th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 54%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 9 (7 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
5 news sentiment+0.1
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.78%5 Year CAGR: 9.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$1,823$1,546$1,671$1,257$1,261$1,182$796$959$854$381$135

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Tencent Music Entertainment Group's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Tencent Music Entertainment GroupCommunication Services

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is a premier operator of online music entertainment platforms across the People's Republic of China, offering a range of services including music streaming, digital karaoke, and live interactive broadcasting. Its offerings encompass popular streaming platforms like QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music, which facilitate personalized music discovery and listening for users. The company also developed WeSing, an engaging application that allows users to sing, socialize with friends, share their performances, and explore songs sung by others. Furthermore, TME runs interactive live broadcasting platforms, notably Kugou Live and Kuwo Live, providing an online venue for performers to exhibit their talents and interact with their audience. Kuwo Changting acts as a specialized audio content platform, featuring diverse spoken word entertainment such as audiobooks, traditional cross-talk, and radio dramas. Beyond its digital services, TME sells music-related hardware, including Kugou headsets, smart speakers, WeSing karaoke microphones, and Hi-Fi audio systems. It also handles online ticketing for music events and partners with manufacturers of smart devices and automobiles to embed and manage music services within their products and vehicles. Tencent Music Entertainment Group maintains a strategic partnership with China Literature. Headquartered in Shenzhen, China, the company functions as a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings Limited.