Market Pulse59Neutral

T-Mobile US, Inc.Opportunity Rank #69(TMUS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$194.20

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$194.20
Price
$768.47
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 296%MOS: $614.78

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

32/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) is estimated at $768.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $194.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.83% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) is estimated at $768.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $194.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.83% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$768.47
▲ 295.71% upside
20% margin of safety: $614.78
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.83%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.32%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
295.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
18.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
26
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
89
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (88th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 114 (102 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
63 news sentiment+2.5
28 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
2 guidance raise+0.4
4 upgrade headlines+0.2
4 earnings beat+0.2
4 analyst upgrades+0.2

Trend Details

32/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-2.2%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.8%
Price vs 50 EMA35 · -3.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA32 · -2.2%
3M RS vs SPY19 · -8.7%
6M RS vs SPY17 · -14.3%
Distance from 52W High50 · -25.2%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
T-Mobile US, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 315% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a robust narrative score. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow yield and buyback activity indicate constructive financial health.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns and valuation if it does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.83%5 Year CAGR: 1.55%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$38,452$37,905$34,604$29,370$34,082$35,609$21,007$14,182$9,567$14,896$14,805$12,073$11,363$7,951$2,022$2,018$1,785$1,783$1,731$1,377$2,312

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates T-Mobile US, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

T-Mobile US, Inc.Communication Services

T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to 108.7 million customers in the postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale markets. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, and tablets and other mobile communication devices, as well as wireless devices and accessories. In addition, the company offers services, devices, and accessories under the T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile brands through its owned and operated retail stores, T-Mobile app and customer care channels, and its websites. It also sells its devices to dealers and other third-party distributors for resale through independent third-party retail outlets and various third-party websites. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 102,000 macro cell and 41,000 small cell/distributed antenna system sites. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.