Market Pulse59Neutral

TriNet Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #126(TNET) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$42.87

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$42.87
Price
$129.05
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 201%MOS: $103.24

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

39/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET) is estimated at $129.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $42.87, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.74% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TriNet Group, Inc. (TNET) is estimated at $129.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $42.87, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.74% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$129.05
▲ 201.03% upside
20% margin of safety: $103.24
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.74%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.79%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
201.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.8% vs WACC 11.0% (1.0x)
49
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
47
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-4.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (75th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 64%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 19 (15 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
14 news sentiment+0.7
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

39/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-50.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.3%
Price vs 21 EMA73 · +4.0%
Price vs 50 EMA66 · +3.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA44 · -0.8%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -30.3%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -35.3%
Distance from 52W High0 · -50.5%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 63%
Thesis
TriNet Group, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 233% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. The company shows potential for value appreciation despite a slightly negative ROIC versus WACC spread.
Key Risk
The key risk is the deteriorating narrative trend which may signal weakening business momentum or investor sentiment.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.74%5 Year CAGR: 8.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
$384$300$357$620$618$258$582$516-$61$291$184$149$174$111$90$54

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TriNet Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TriNet Group, Inc.Industrials

TriNet Group, Inc. provides human resources (HR) solutions, payroll services, employee benefits, and employment risk mitigation services for small and midsize businesses in the United States. The company offers multi-state payroll processing and tax administration; employee benefits programs, including health insurance and retirement plans; workers compensation insurance and claims management; employment and benefits law compliance; and other HR related services. It serves clients in various industries, including technology, professional services, financial services, life sciences, not-for-profit, property management, retail, manufacturing, and hospitality. The company sells its solutions through its direct sales organization. TriNet Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.