Market Pulse44Neutral

Toast, Inc.Opportunity Rank #111(TOST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$24.26

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$24.26
Price
$30.56
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 26%MOS: $24.45

Fundamental Score

95/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Toast, Inc. (TOST) is estimated at $30.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.26, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 13.04% long-term growth rate and an 11.39% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Toast, Inc. (TOST) is estimated at $30.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.26, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 13.04% long-term growth rate and an 11.39% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$30.56
25.97% upside
20% margin of safety: $24.45
Years: 10Growth Rate: 13.04%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
63.34%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

95/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
26.0% discount to price
93
FCF Yield
5.5% trailing FCF yield
88
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 63.3% vs WACC 8.0% (7.9x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
286.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 56m ago
Sources: 47 (39 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
34 news sentiment+0.3
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-50.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-42.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-26.4%
Price vs 21 EMA35 · -2.4%
Price vs 50 EMA24 · -5.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA25 · -3.3%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -26.4%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -42.5%
Distance from 52W High0 · -50.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Toast, Inc. presents a strong investment opportunity with a bullish fundamental score of 92 and a valuation implying an 18.4% upside. Its ROIC significantly exceeds the cost of capital by 51.3 points, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.5%.
Key Risk
The primary risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital or if the valuation discount narrows significantly, undermining the current upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 109.13%5 Year CAGR: 105.73%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$774$714$414$177-$123$21-$89-$111

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Toast, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Toast, Inc.Technology

Toast, Inc. delivers a comprehensive cloud-based digital technology platform tailored specifically for the restaurant sector, serving businesses across the United States and Ireland. Its extensive product suite features an array of hardware solutions, including the foundational Toast Point of Sale (POS) system. Toast Flex offers versatile functionality, adaptable as an on-counter order and payment terminal, a server workstation, a guest kiosk, a kitchen display system, or an order fulfillment hub. For enhanced tableside service and expedited table turnover, the company provides Toast Go, a handheld POS device facilitating ordering and payment acceptance directly at the table, alongside Toast Tap, a compact card reader. Beyond hardware, Toast supplies robust software solutions. Toast Order & Pay empowers guests to place orders and settle bills conveniently from their mobile devices. The platform integrates specialized kitchen display system software, streamlining communication between front-of-house staff and the kitchen team. For larger operations, multi-location management software enables customers to centralize operational control, standardize procedures, and efficiently configure menus. Back-office administrative tasks are supported by xtraCHEF tools. Furthermore, Toast Flex for Kitchen provides a larger, mountable hardware solution designed specifically as a kitchen screen. Regarding customer engagement and logistics, Toast offers the Toast Online Ordering & Toast TakeOut app, a software platform enabling restaurants to accept off-premises orders directly through their branded websites. For delivery, they provide First-Party Delivery services, allowing restaurants to manage their own driver fleets and customize delivery parameters such as hours, zones, fees, and minimum order values. Additionally, Toast Delivery Services connects restaurants with a network of third-party delivery drivers, complemented by broader Toast Delivery Partners services. The company's offerings extend to comprehensive business support services. These encompass loyalty programs and gift card management, payroll and team administration tools, tailored business owner policy insurance with restaurant-specific enhancements, and efficient payment processing solutions. Toast also facilitates financial support through loans advanced to restaurants and purchase financing options. Detailed reporting and analytics solutions provide valuable insights. For broader integration, Toast Partner Connect allows users to discover, select, and seamlessly integrate with various third-party partners via bi-directional APIs. Established in 2011, Toast, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Boston, Massachusetts.