Market Pulse44Neutral

The Trade Desk, Inc.Opportunity Rank #112(TTD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$18.02

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$18.02
Price
$83.97
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 366%MOS: $67.18

Fundamental Score

86/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

8/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is estimated at $83.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $18.02, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.37% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is estimated at $83.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $18.02, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.37% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$83.97
▲ 365.98% upside
20% margin of safety: $67.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.37%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.26%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

86/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
366.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
15.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.3% vs WACC 9.0% (1.0x)
51
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (74th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 19m ago
Sources: 99 (82 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
66 news sentiment+0.4
5 downgrade headlines-0.2
4 earnings miss-0.0
4 analyst downgrades-0.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
4 regulatory scrutiny-0.0

Trend Details

8/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-79.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-62.4%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-40.0%
Price vs 21 EMA8 · -9.6%
Price vs 50 EMA3 · -16.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA7 · -7.5%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -40.0%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -62.4%
Distance from 52W High0 · -79.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 74%
Thesis
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 353% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 14.9% and a net cash balance sheet. The company's improving narrative and robust fundamental scores indicate strong growth potential and shareholder value creation.
Key Risk
The slight negative spread between ROIC and WACC poses a risk to sustained value creation if not improved over time.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 14.37%5 Year CAGR: 25.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$1,349$1,190$847$653$641$438$485$101$112$44$84-$30-$13

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Trade Desk, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Trade Desk, Inc.Communication Services

The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform. This platform enables advertising buyers to efficiently create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across diverse formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social media, reaching audiences on computers, mobile devices, and connected TVs. In addition to the platform, the company offers various data and value-added services. Their primary clients are advertising agencies and other service providers who represent advertisers. The Trade Desk was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.

The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq