Market Pulse59Neutral

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.Opportunity Rank #42(TXRH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$157.93

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$157.93
Price
$290.96
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 84%MOS: $232.77

Fundamental Score

78/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

53/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is estimated at $290.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $157.93, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.79% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.59%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is estimated at $290.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $157.93, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.79% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.59%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$290.96
▲ 84.23% upside
20% margin of safety: $232.77
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.79%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

78/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
84.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.6x)
28
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
86
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (100th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 85%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 30 (19 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
9 news sentiment+0.6
Upgrade headlines+0.5
Downgrade headlines+0.1
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

53/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.9%
Price vs 21 EMA+9.4%
Price vs 50 EMA+7.0%
Price vs 21 EMA90 · +9.4%
Price vs 50 EMA79 · +7.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA32 · -2.2%
3M RS vs SPY9 · -13.9%
6M RS vs SPY45 · -1.9%
Distance from 52W High78 · -11.2%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly 89% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 10.2%. The company's improving narrative score and solid free cash flow growth further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remains below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.79%5 Year CAGR: 9.67%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,062$1,118$1,108$912$758$670$385$589$509$448$422$401$317$284$231$219$165$161$204$178$191

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Texas Roadhouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates and franchises restaurants under the Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers names. As of December 28, 2021, it operated 566 domestic restaurants and 101 franchise restaurants. Texas Roadhouse, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.