Market Pulse44Neutral

Unusual Machines, Inc.Opportunity Rank #269(UMAC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$22.57

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$22.57
Price
-$9.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 143%MOS: -$7.69

Fundamental Score

13/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

76/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) is estimated at $-9.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $22.57, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.72% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.27%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC) is estimated at $-9.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $22.57, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.72% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.27%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$9.61
▼ -142.58% downside
20% margin of safety: -$7.69
Years: 10Growth Rate: -47.72%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-16.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

13/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
142.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-4.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -16.0% vs WACC 7.0% (-2.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (21st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 42 (37 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
30 news sentiment+0.5
3 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Earnings miss-0.0
Inventory pressure+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0

Trend Details

76/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+148.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+37.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+15.1%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.7%
Price vs 50 EMA86 · +9.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA99 · +15.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +37.0%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +148.9%
Distance from 52W High35 · -32.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Unusual Machines, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 82% above the estimated fair value of $4.12, reflecting weak fundamentals including a negative ROIC spread and elevated leverage. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
Continued high leverage and negative returns on invested capital could further deteriorate the company's financial health and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -47.72%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -51.02%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$35-$19-$4-$2-$10$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Unusual Machines, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Unusual Machines, Inc.Financial Services

Unusual Machines, Inc. is a company that focuses on the development, production, and sale of advanced video goggles offering exceptionally low latency for drone operators. The enterprise also manages an online retail platform specifically catering to the drone market. Previously known as AerocarveUS Corporation, the firm adopted its current name, Unusual Machines, Inc., in July 2022. It was established in 2019 and its main operations are based in San Juan, Puerto Rico.