Market Pulse59Neutral

UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #14(UNH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$369.74

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$369.74
Price
$584.01
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 58%MOS: $467.21

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

90/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is estimated at $584.01 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $369.74, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.31% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.35%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is estimated at $584.01 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $369.74, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.31% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.35%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$584.01
57.95% upside
20% margin of safety: $467.21
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.31%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
58.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.6% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
1.8x net debt to FCF
37
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (62nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 214 (200 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
136 news sentiment+5.1
12 earnings beat+1.5
6 upgrade headlines+0.9
39 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
2 restructuring+0.2
3 margin pressure+0.1

Trend Details

90/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+30.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-1.4%
Price vs 50 EMA+16.7%
Price vs 21 EMA89 · +8.9%
Price vs 50 EMA96 · +16.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA91 · +7.2%
3M RS vs SPY99 · +30.5%
6M RS vs SPY69 · +7.1%
Distance from 52W High97 · -1.4%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is undervalued with a fair value estimate 64.9% above the current price and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.9%, supported by an improving narrative score of 80. Despite trailing returns relative to cost of capital, the company's fundamentals and valuation present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.31%5 Year CAGR: 1.44%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$26,640$23,319$27,703$32,454$29,008$24,797$24,225$20,534$17,776$15,619$11,500$11,296$9,498$8,152$8,225$7,986$7,151$6,364$5,029$6,748$7,254

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedHealthcare

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a diversified health care company in the United States. It operates through four segments: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; health care coverage and well-being services to individuals age 50 and older addressing their needs for preventive and acute health care services, as well as services dealing with chronic disease and other specialized issues for older individuals; Medicaid plans, children's health insurance and health care programs; health and dental benefits; and hospital and clinical services. The OptumHealth segment provides access to networks of care provider specialists, health management services, care delivery, consumer engagement, and financial services. This segment serves individuals directly through care delivery systems, employers, payers, and government entities. The OptumInsight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, governments, life sciences companies, and other organizations. The OptumRx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and compounding pharmacy, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease/drug therapy management. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.