UPS

$116.51

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 3.79% trendline growth.
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$245.77

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$196.62
68.76% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
4.56%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
47
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
68.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
1.9x net debt to FCF
34
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.
Narrative Score
63
Improving
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 days+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline: Above Avg (64th pct)
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 5h ago
Sources: 187 (News 168 · Analyst 19)
Drivers
124 news sentiment+2.1
5 layoffs-0.5
35 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Other Metrics
P/E17.8
Profit Margin6.3%
Owner Earnings$13.00b
One Dollar Premise100.00%
Debt/Equity3.47
Current Ratio1.23
PEG11.485
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$8,674$3,943$11,062$6,887$5,224$9,078$9,369$9,369$8,054$9,809$9,438$6,706$18,994$15,019$15,871$19,201$18,873$15,396$14,031$12,135
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates United Parcel Service, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

United Parcel Service, Inc.Industrials

United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment offers guaranteed time-definite express options. The company also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and mail and consulting services in approximately 200 countries and territories. In addition, it offers truckload brokerage services; supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry; shipping, visibility, and billing technologies; and financial and insurance services. The company operates a fleet of approximately 121,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; and owns 59,000 containers that are used to transport cargo in its aircraft. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.