Market Pulse44Neutral

Upwork Inc.Opportunity Rank #126(UPWK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$7.84

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$7.84
Price
$54.81
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 599%MOS: $43.85

Fundamental Score

84/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

8/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Upwork Inc. (UPWK) is estimated at $54.81 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.84, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.86% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Upwork Inc. (UPWK) is estimated at $54.81 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.84, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.86% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$54.81
▲ 599.11% upside
20% margin of safety: $43.85
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.86%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.03%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

84/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
599.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
25.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.9x)
45
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
46.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (29th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 13m ago
Sources: 51 (44 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
20 news sentiment+0.1
Guidance cut-0.0
20 legal risk-0.0
Earnings miss-0.0
3 analyst downgrades-0.0
Restructuring-0.0

Trend Details

8/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-64.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-72.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-45.3%
Price vs 21 EMA9 · -8.7%
Price vs 50 EMA2 · -17.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA3 · -10.0%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -45.3%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -72.0%
Distance from 52W High0 · -64.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Upwork Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 545% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 83 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 23.1%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company's improving narrative and robust cash flow growth present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns currently do not cover the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 20.42%5 Year CAGR: 70.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$245$254$168$69$20$17$37$18$21-$2$4

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Upwork Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Upwork Inc.Industrials

Upwork Inc., operating alongside its subsidiaries, provides a leading online work marketplace that connects businesses globally with independent professionals and agencies, spanning the United States, India, the Philippines, and other international markets. The platform grants clients access to a vast and diverse pool of talent, covering a wide array of specializations. These include key areas like sales and marketing, customer service, data science and analytics, creative design, and various aspects of web, mobile, and software development. Beyond talent acquisition, the marketplace also streamlines key operational workflows for businesses, such as sourcing candidates, managing outreach, and facilitating contract agreements. To support effective remote collaborations, Upwork offers a suite of functionalities, including robust communication and collaboration tools, simplified invoicing directly through the platform, and comprehensive payment protection. Upwork's marketplace offerings encompass various service tiers, such as Upwork Basic, Plus, Enterprise, and Payroll solutions, alongside managed and internet escrow agency services. Originally incorporated in 2013 and initially known as Elance-oDesk, Inc., the company rebranded to Upwork Inc. in May 2015. It maintains its headquarters in San Francisco, California.