Market Pulse50Neutral

Venture Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #99(VG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$15.80

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$15.80
Price
$114.44
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 624%MOS: $91.55

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is estimated at $114.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $15.80, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 17.36%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is estimated at $114.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $15.80, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 17.36%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$114.44
▲ 624.30% upside
20% margin of safety: $91.55
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.26%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
624.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
51.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
28
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (69th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 77 (70 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
55 news sentiment+2.1
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
2 upgrade headlines+0.4
Legal risk-0.1
2 margin pressure+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
BUYConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Venture Global, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 650% above its current price, supported by a strong narrative score and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow yield and buyback activity indicate potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 35.52%5 Year CAGR: 66.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
$19,931$19,931$15,866$12,641$8,320$1,576

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Venture Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Venture Global, Inc.Energy

Venture Global, Inc. supplies natural gas products. The Company specializes in commissioning, constructing, and developing natural gas liquefaction and export projects.