Market Pulse59Neutral

Venture Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #83(VG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$11.69

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$11.69
Price
$114.44
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 879%MOS: $91.55

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

49/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is estimated at $114.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $11.69, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 14.91%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Venture Global, Inc. (VG) is estimated at $114.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $11.69, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 14.91%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$114.44
▲ 878.96% upside
20% margin of safety: $91.55
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.26%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
879.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
69.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
28
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (25th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 80 (67 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 upgrade headlines+0.5
45 news sentiment+0.3
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Earnings beat+0.1
2 downgrade headlines-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

49/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+38.9%
Price vs 21 EMA-9.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-8.7%
Price vs 21 EMA7 · -9.7%
Price vs 50 EMA14 · -8.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA59 · +1.2%
3M RS vs SPY81 · +8.9%
6M RS vs SPY99 · +38.9%
Distance from 52W High20 · -39.8%

Investment Coach

Updated 15h ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Venture Global, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 900% above its current price, supported by strong free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's healthy cash flow and buyback activity present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which may pressure valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 35.52%5 Year CAGR: 66.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
$19,931$19,931$15,866$12,641$8,320$1,576

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Venture Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Venture Global, Inc.Energy

Venture Global, Inc. supplies natural gas products. The Company specializes in commissioning, constructing, and developing natural gas liquefaction and export projects.