Market Pulse44Neutral

Varonis Systems, Inc.Opportunity Rank #178(VRNS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$32.71

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$32.71
Price
$31.75
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 3%MOS: $25.40

Fundamental Score

54/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

65/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) is estimated at $31.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $32.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.70% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) is estimated at $31.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $32.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.70% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$31.75
-2.93% downside
20% margin of safety: $25.40
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.70%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-12.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

54/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
2.9% premium to price
45
FCF Yield
3.9% trailing FCF yield
47
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -12.7% vs WACC 10.0% (-1.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
103.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
+5 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (78th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 85%Updated: 38m ago
Sources: 34 (21 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
3 legal risk-0.0
8 news sentiment+0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
13 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

65/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+23.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-48.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+7.5%
Price vs 21 EMA56 · +0.9%
Price vs 50 EMA84 · +8.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA92 · +7.5%
3M RS vs SPY98 · +23.1%
6M RS vs SPY23 · -10.7%
Distance from 52W High3 · -48.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Varonis Systems, Inc. shows constructive fundamentals with a neutral score and a valuation close to fair value, supported by a strong balance sheet and positive free cash flow growth. However, returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital, suggesting patience is warranted before considering investment.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative return on invested capital significantly underperforming its weighted average cost of capital, which may pressure future valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.70%5 Year CAGR: 53.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
$149$160$122$65$23$18$4$15$33$22$11$2-$5$1$3$2$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Varonis Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Varonis Systems, Inc.Technology

Varonis Systems, Inc. specializes in delivering software solutions and associated services designed to help large organizations oversee, analyze, identify threats in, and protect their critical digital information across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and other international markets. Their technology safeguards sensitive data, whether stored on-premises or in cloud environments, encompassing proprietary files and communications, private customer, patient, and employee information, financial documents, strategic plans, product roadmaps, and other intellectual assets. Among their offerings, DatAdvantage meticulously tracks, consolidates, standardizes, and evaluates every instance of data access by users across a wide array of platforms, such as Windows and UNIX/Linux servers, storage systems, email platforms, internal networks, cloud applications, and data repositories. Complementing this, DatAlert establishes profiles for users, devices, and their behaviors regarding systems and data. It is engineered to detect and issue warnings about unusual activities that could signal a breach, presenting this information via an intuitive web-based control panel for investigations. The Data Classification Engine is another key component, enabling the identification and categorization of data using predefined metadata criteria, supplying actionable insights to both business and IT teams. Furthermore, DataPrivilege simplifies data access management; it provides a self-service web portal where employees can request access to necessary data for their roles, and data owners can approve these requests directly, reducing the need for IT department involvement. Varonis also offers the Data Transport Engine, an execution platform that streamlines the management of data and metadata, converting strategic business decisions and directives into technical actions like data migration or archiving. Lastly, DatAnswers facilitates comprehensive search capabilities across an organization's entire digital data landscape. Varonis Systems, Inc. distributes its products and services through a robust network of authorized distributors and resellers. Their clientele primarily consists of IT professionals, security teams, and business leadership. Established in 2004, the company maintains its headquarters in New York, New York.