Market Pulse59Neutral

Varonis Systems, Inc.Opportunity Rank #93(VRNS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$28.68

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$28.68
Price
$31.84
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 11%MOS: $25.47

Fundamental Score

61/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

70/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) is estimated at $31.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $28.68, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.70% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.38%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) is estimated at $31.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $28.68, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.70% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.38%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$31.84
11.02% upside
20% margin of safety: $25.47
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.70%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-14.78%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

61/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.0% discount to price
68
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
61
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -14.8% vs WACC 10.0% (-1.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
103.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (89th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 84%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 37 (24 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
12 regulatory scrutiny+1.2
4 news sentiment+0.5
Earnings beat-0.3
7 legal risk-0.2
Analyst downgrades-0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

70/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-54.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+19.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-27.3%
Price vs 21 EMA92 · +10.5%
Price vs 50 EMA91 · +12.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA63 · +1.7%
3M RS vs SPY96 · +19.2%
6M RS vs SPY5 · -27.3%
Distance from 52W High0 · -54.9%

Investment Coach

Updated 21h ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Varonis Systems, Inc. shows a 19.7% valuation upside with constructive fundamentals and a strong narrative trend, supported by a near net cash balance sheet and robust free cash flow growth. However, returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital, indicating cautious optimism is warranted.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure long-term value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.70%5 Year CAGR: 53.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
$149$160$122$65$23$18$4$15$33$22$11$2-$5$1$3$2$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Varonis Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Varonis Systems, Inc.Technology

Varonis Systems, Inc. provides software products and services that allow enterprises to manage, analyze, alert, and secure enterprise data in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. Its software enables enterprises to protect data stored on premises and in the cloud, including sensitive files and emails; confidential personal data belonging to customers, and patients and employees' data; financial records; strategic and product plans; and other intellectual property. The company offers DatAdvantage that captures, aggregates, normalizes, and analyzes every data access event for users on Windows and UNIX/Linux servers, storage devices, email systems, Intranet servers, cloud applications, and data stores; and DatAlert that profiles users, devices, and their behaviors related to systems and data, detects and alerts on deviations that indicate compromise, and provides a Web-based dashboard and investigative interface. It also provides Data Classification Engine that identifies and tags data based on criteria set in various metadata dimensions, as well as provides business and information technology (IT) personnel with actionable intelligence about data; and DataPrivilege, which offers a self-service Web portal that allows users to request access to data necessary for their business functions, and owners to grant access without IT intervention. In addition, the company provides Data Transport Engine, which provides an execution engine that unifies the manipulation of data and metadata, translating business decisions, and instructions into technical commands, such as data migration or archiving; and DatAnswers that offers search functionality for enterprise data. Varonis Systems, Inc. sells products and services through a network of distributors and resellers. The company serves IT, security, and business personnel. Varonis Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in New York, New York.