Market Pulse44Neutral

Vistra Corp.Opportunity Rank #43(VST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$167.26

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$167.26
Price
$514.51
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 208%MOS: $411.61

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

60/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Vistra Corp. (VST) is estimated at $514.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $167.26, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.32% long-term growth rate and a 9.09% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Vistra Corp. (VST) is estimated at $514.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $167.26, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.32% long-term growth rate and a 9.09% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$514.51
207.61% upside
20% margin of safety: $411.61
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.32%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.02%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
207.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
20
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
87
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (25th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 72 (70 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
57 news sentiment+1.2
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
3 earnings beat+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

60/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Price vs 21 EMA+8.4%
Price vs 50 EMA+8.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-6.3%
Price vs 21 EMA88 · +8.4%
Price vs 50 EMA83 · +8.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
3M RS vs SPY49 · -0.2%
6M RS vs SPY33 · -6.3%
Distance from 52W High54 · -23.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Vistra Corp. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 366% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to cost of capital, the company shows potential for value appreciation given its strong free cash flow generation.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are not currently covering the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.47%5 Year CAGR: 58.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$8,215$8,011$6,641$7,129$1,786$827$4,596$3,345$1,967$1,917$195$697$857$318$607

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Vistra Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Vistra Corp.Utilities

Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Beyond its retail endeavors, Vistra also participates in generating electricity, facilitating wholesale energy transactions, managing commodity-related risks, producing fuel, and overseeing fuel logistics. With approximately 4.3 million customers, Vistra commands an impressive generation capacity of about 38,700 megawatts. This capacity is sustained by a diverse portfolio of facilities, including those powered by natural gas, nuclear energy, coal, solar, and advanced battery energy storage systems. The enterprise, initially known as Vistra Energy Corp., adopted its current name, Vistra Corp., in July 2020. Tracing its origins back to 1882, Vistra Corp. maintains its corporate headquarters in Irving, Texas.