Market Pulse44Neutral

Western Digital CorporationOpportunity Rank #165(WDC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$732.62

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$732.62
Price
$92.84
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 87%MOS: $74.27

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

99/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is estimated at $92.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $732.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.50% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.17%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is estimated at $92.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $732.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.50% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.17%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$92.84
-87.33% downside
20% margin of safety: $74.27
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.50%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
19.58%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
87.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 19.6% vs WACC 9.0% (2.2x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (62nd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 38m ago
Sources: 188 (166 News · 22 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
149 news sentiment+4.6
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
2 earnings beat-0.0
22 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

99/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+135.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+329.8%
Price vs 50 EMA+45.9%
Price vs 21 EMA100 · +24.5%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +45.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA100 · +17.2%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +135.2%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +329.8%
Distance from 52W High96 · -1.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Western Digital Corporation's ROIC exceeds its cost of capital by 4.1 percentage points, supported by a strong narrative score and a net cash balance sheet, indicating operational strength despite valuation concerns. However, the stock is currently trading at an estimated 81% premium to its fair value, suggesting potential overvaluation.
Key Risk
The significant overvaluation relative to estimated fair value poses a risk if the market corrects or the company's fundamentals deteriorate further.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over coming quarters
  • Narrative score trend shows meaningful shifts in direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.50%5 Year CAGR: 4.80%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,667$2,098$193$399$2,987$2,901$1,471$2,304$5,014$3,994$2,567$2,854$3,444$4,071$3,784$2,433$2,679$1,824$2,014$942$703

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Western Digital Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Western Digital CorporationTechnology

Western Digital Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets a broad range of data storage devices and software solutions across the United States, China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the rest of Asia, serving an international market. The company's product lineup includes client devices such as hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid-state drives (SSDs) for computing platforms like desktops, notebooks, smart video systems, gaming consoles, and set-top boxes. They also provide flash-based embedded storage solutions for mobile phones, tablets, laptops, and various portable and wearable technologies, extending into automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), industrial, and connected home applications. Additionally, Western Digital produces flash-based memory wafers. For data centers, their offerings comprise enterprise helium hard drives and sophisticated flash-based SSDs, often bundled with software tailored for enterprise servers, online transaction processing, data analysis, and other business applications. This segment also includes comprehensive data storage systems, tiered storage models, and various data storage platforms. Consumer-oriented client solutions consist of external HDDs in both mobile and desktop configurations, portable SSDs, and removable memory cards compatible with mobile phones, tablets, imaging systems, cameras, and smart video systems. Furthermore, they offer universal serial bus (USB) flash drives for computing and general consumer markets, alongside wireless drive products designed for on-the-go content backup and high-definition streaming of media and documents to tablets, smartphones, and PCs. Western Digital sells its diverse portfolio through original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, dealers, resellers, and retailers, utilizing its prominent G-Technology, SanDisk, and WD brands. Founded in 1970, the corporation is headquartered in San Jose, California.