Market Pulse50Neutral

Wingstop Inc.Opportunity Rank #198(WING) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$183.24

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$183.24
Price
$125.09
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 32%MOS: $100.07

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Wingstop Inc. (WING) is estimated at $125.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $183.24, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.72% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Wingstop Inc. (WING) is estimated at $125.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $183.24, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.72% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$125.09
▼ -31.73% downside
20% margin of safety: $100.07
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.72%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
19.91%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
31.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.9% trailing FCF yield
48
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 19.9% vs WACC 7.0% (2.8x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
5.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (0th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 75%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 50 (50 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
40 news sentiment+0.8
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
5 earnings beat+0.1
2 downgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 22h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Wingstop Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 23.7% relative to its estimated fair value despite strong fundamentals including a ROIC significantly above its cost of capital. The company demonstrates solid free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, but elevated leverage is a concern.
Key Risk
The elevated leverage at 5.1x net debt to free cash flow poses a significant financial risk if cash flow generation weakens or market conditions deteriorate.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.72%5 Year CAGR: 21.13%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$201$201$210$162$100$77$72$61$43$30$24$15$16$13$12

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Wingstop Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Wingstop Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand name. Its restaurants offer classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders that are cooked-to-order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors. As of December 25, 2021, the company had 1,695 franchised restaurants and 36 company-owned restaurants in 44 states and 7 countries worldwide. Wingstop Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Addison, Texas.