Market Pulse59Neutral

Wingstop Inc.Opportunity Rank #203(WING) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$134.88

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$134.88
Price
$149.26
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 11%MOS: $119.41

Fundamental Score

90/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

-3 vs previous

Trend Score

5/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Wingstop Inc. (WING) is estimated at $149.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $134.88, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.96% long-term growth rate and a 12.51% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Wingstop Inc. (WING) is estimated at $149.26 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $134.88, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.96% long-term growth rate and a 12.51% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$149.26
▲ 10.66% upside
20% margin of safety: $119.41
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.96%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
13.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

90/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
10.7% discount to price
68
FCF Yield
6.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 13.2% vs WACC 7.0% (1.9x)
94
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
28.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
-3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (6th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 81%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 58 (58 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
44 news sentiment-0.6
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
3 earnings beat+0.3
3 downgrade headlines-0.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

5/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-66.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-57.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-30.1%
Price vs 21 EMA0 · -21.3%
Price vs 50 EMA0 · -30.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA2 · -11.2%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -57.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -57.6%
Distance from 52W High0 · -66.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Wingstop Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 22.4% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 6.2 points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.7%. The company demonstrates robust financial health with strong buybacks and cash flow growth, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend and moderate confidence in the narrative score could signal emerging challenges that may impact future performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.96%5 Year CAGR: 26.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$246$201$210$162$100$77$72$61$43$30$24$15$16$13$12

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Wingstop Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Wingstop Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand name. Its restaurants offer classic wings, boneless wings, and tenders that are cooked-to-order, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors. As of December 25, 2021, the company had 1,695 franchised restaurants and 36 company-owned restaurants in 44 states and 7 countries worldwide. Wingstop Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Addison, Texas.