Market Pulse44Neutral

Waste Management, Inc.Opportunity Rank #115(WM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$213.31

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$213.31
Price
$361.77
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 70%MOS: $289.42

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

31/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is estimated at $361.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $213.31, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.95% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is estimated at $361.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $213.31, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.95% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$361.77
69.60% upside
20% margin of safety: $289.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.95%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.68%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
69.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
11.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
17
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
91
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (17th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 50m ago
Sources: 56 (50 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
42 news sentiment+0.5
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

31/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.8%
Distance from 52-Week High-13.5%
Price vs 21 EMA37 · -2.0%
Price vs 50 EMA34 · -3.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA39 · -1.3%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.5%
6M RS vs SPY18 · -13.8%
Distance from 52W High73 · -13.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Waste Management, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 62% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to cost of capital, the company shows strong free cash flow growth and effective buybacks.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.95%5 Year CAGR: 8.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,382$9,270$8,621$7,614$7,123$6,242$5,035$5,692$5,264$4,689$4,299$3,731$3,482$3,726$3,805$3,793$3,379$3,541$3,796$3,650$3,869

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Waste Management, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Waste Management, Inc.Industrials

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) functions as a premier provider of environmental waste solutions across North America, serving a diverse client base that includes residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers. The company's core operations involve comprehensive collection services, which include gathering and transporting both waste materials and recyclables from their initial point of generation to designated transfer stations, material recovery facilities (MRFs), or final disposal sites. Waste Management maintains an extensive network of facilities, owning, developing, and operating landfill gas-to-energy plants within the United States, in addition to managing numerous transfer stations. As of December 31, 2021, its substantial infrastructure consisted of 255 solid waste landfills, 5 secure hazardous waste landfills, 96 material recovery facilities, and 340 transfer stations. Beyond primary collection and disposal, WM offers services in materials processing and commodities recycling. This extends to recycling brokerage, where they handle the marketing of recyclable goods for third-party entities, alongside providing various other strategic business solutions. Its service portfolio also encompasses construction and remediation projects, the responsible management of fly ash and other residues generated from coal and fuel combustion, and specialized in-plant services offering full-spectrum waste management consulting. Furthermore, the company delivers tailored disposal solutions for oil and gas exploration and production activities. Originally incorporated in 1987 as USA Waste Services, Inc., the company rebranded to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.