Market Pulse44Neutral

Exxon Mobil CorporationOpportunity Rank #87(XOM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$138.47

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$138.47
Price
$265.22
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 92%MOS: $212.18

Fundamental Score

75/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

75/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

30/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is estimated at $265.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $138.47, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.10% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.26%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is estimated at $265.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $138.47, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.10% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.26%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$265.22
▲ 91.54% upside
20% margin of safety: $212.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.10%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

75/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
91.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 8.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
90
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

75/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (25th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 17m ago
Sources: 219 (200 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
170 news sentiment+2.2
2 analyst upgrades+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.1
21 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Downgrade headlines+0.0
2 legal risk+0.0

Trend Details

30/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-28.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-7.1%
Price vs 21 EMA-5.4%
Price vs 21 EMA20 · -5.4%
Price vs 50 EMA19 · -7.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA35 · -1.8%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -28.1%
6M RS vs SPY69 · +7.1%
Distance from 52W High62 · -19.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Exxon Mobil Corporation is undervalued with a fair value estimate 72.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish score of 75. Despite trailing returns relative to cost of capital, its free cash flow yield and buyback activity indicate solid financial health.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns and valuation if it does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.10%5 Year CAGR: 4.95%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$76,652$80,328$79,328$77,288$95,204$60,205$31,950$54,077$55,588$45,468$38,245$56,834$78,068$78,583$90,441$86,320$75,284$50,929$79,043$67,389$64,748

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Exxon Mobil Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Exxon Mobil CorporationEnergy

Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories. The company organizes its vast activities into three primary divisions: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Beyond resource acquisition, Exxon Mobil is deeply engaged in the manufacturing, commercial trading, logistical transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum goods, a wide array of petrochemicals (including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics), and other specialized chemical products. Furthermore, the company is actively developing solutions in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. As of December 31, 2021, the corporation maintained approximately 20,528 net operational wells with verified reserves. Founded in 1870, Exxon Mobil's corporate headquarters are located in Irving, Texas.