Market Pulse59Neutral

Zillow Group, Inc. Class COpportunity Rank #241(Z) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$43.68

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$43.68
Price
$35.00
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 20%MOS: $28.00

Fundamental Score

32/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

15/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) is estimated at $35.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $43.68, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.38% long-term growth rate and a 12.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Zillow Group, Inc. Class C (Z) is estimated at $35.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $43.68, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.38% long-term growth rate and a 12.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$35.00
▼ -19.87% downside
20% margin of safety: $28.00
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.31%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

32/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
19.9% premium to price
17
FCF Yield
4.7% trailing FCF yield
67
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.3% vs WACC 7.0% (0.0x)
2
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 78 (73 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
37 news sentiment+2.7
Margin pressure+0.6
21 legal risk+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.0
13 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

15/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-54.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-52.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-31.4%
Price vs 21 EMA19 · -5.6%
Price vs 50 EMA12 · -9.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -4.0%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -31.4%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -52.1%
Distance from 52W High0 · -54.1%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Zillow Group, Inc. Class C exhibits a strong narrative trend but suffers from weak fundamentals and is currently overvalued relative to its base-case fair value. The company's returns are trailing its estimated cost of capital, indicating limited upside potential at current prices.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's fundamental weaknesses persist or worsen, preventing any meaningful improvement in returns or valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.38%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 413.43%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$495$501$571$519$4,644-$3,072$533-$526$82$337$80$91$90$57$49$24$80$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Zillow Group, Inc. Class C's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Zillow Group, Inc. Class CCommunication Services

Zillow Group, Inc., a digital real estate company, operates real estate brands on mobile applications and Websites in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Homes; Internet, Media & Technology; and Mortgages. The Homes segment is involved in resale of homes; and title and escrow services to home buyers and sellers, including title search procedures for title insurance policies, escrow, and other closing services. The IMT segment offers premier agent, rentals, and new construction marketplaces, as well as dotloop, display, and other advertising, as well as business software solutions. The Mortgage segment provides home loans; and marketing products including custom quote and connect services. Its portfolio of brands includes Zillow Rentals, Trulia, StreetEasy, Zillow Closing Services, HotPads, and Out East. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.